Medicare

 




Medicare coverage itself isn’t directly altered, but the bill reshapes long-term care through delayed staffing regulations and stricter Medicaid.

Yes — Medicare Part B premiums are expected to increase substantially for 2026. Most widely cited forecasts estimate a rise of about 11.5%, from $185/month in 2025 to approximately $206–$206.50/month in 2026 (Barron's).


🧮 Percentage Increase & Impact on Income‑Related Premiums

  • Standard Part B premium: projected to jump roughly $21–$21.50—an 11.5% increase (Barron's).

  • IRMAA (Income‑Related Monthly Adjustment Amount) surcharges will also see a modest bump, typically driven by inflation indexing (CPI‑U), but these are smaller in percentage—about a 1% rise on average (Kiplinger).


Is the OBBB (One Big Beautiful Bill) Responsible?

No — the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) focuses on reducing federal spending primarily through tightening Medicaid, ACA subsidies, and instituting work or verification rules for lower-income populations (Investors).

It doesn’t directly raise Medicare Part B premiums. That projected 2026 increase is driven by program costs and broader inflation effects—not the OBBB. In fact, recent analysis notes Medicare was largely untouched in OBBBA’s cuts via the reconciliation process (yahoo.com).


Summary Table

Item 2025 Value 2026 Projection
Part B Premium (standard) $185 ~$206–206.50 (+11.5%)
IRMAA Surcharges Varies by income Modestly higher (~+1%)
OBBBA influence on premiums None (not linked)

Medicare Part B premiums are expected to rise by about 11–12% in 2026. That’s not due to the OBBBA — it’s driven by inflation, program expenses, and annual CMS adjustments.

The Hold Harmless Provision is a federal law that protects most Medicare beneficiaries from having their Social Security payments reduced due to increases in Medicare Part B premiums.


🔐 What It Does

If you're receiving Social Security benefits and enrolled in Medicare Part B, the Hold Harmless rule ensures that your Part B premium increase cannot exceed your cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) in Social Security for that year.

In simple terms: If your Social Security check is only going up $10/month due to COLA, then your Part B premium cannot increase by more than $10/month — you're “held harmless.”

🧠 Who Qualifies for Hold Harmless?

You are protected if all the following apply:

  • You are enrolled in Medicare Part B.

  • Your Part B premium is deducted from your Social Security check.

  • You do not pay higher premiums due to Income-Related Monthly Adjustment Amounts (IRMAA).

  • You do not receive Medicaid (which pays your premiums separately).

➡️ This means about 70%–75% of Medicare enrollees are protected under this rule most years.

👥 Who Isn't Protected?

  • New Medicare enrollees (first year on Part B).

  • Those not yet receiving Social Security.

  • High-income enrollees subject to IRMAA surcharges.

  • People whose premiums are paid by Medicaid.

  • Anyone not having premiums deducted from Social Security.


💡 Why It Matters

During years with low or no COLA, this provision shields seniors on tight budgets from Medicare hikes. But it can create funding imbalances — to compensate, unprotected beneficiaries may face larger premium hikes.

For example, in 2016, there was no Social Security COLA, so the hold harmless rule froze premiums for most. But people not protected by the rule saw Part B premiums jump by nearly 17% to cover costs.

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